The increasing influence of unstructured external information, such as news articles, on stock prices has attracted growing attention in financial markets. Despite recent advances, most existing newsbased forecasting models represent all articles using sentiment scores or average embeddings that capture the general tone but fail to provide quantitative, context-aware explanations of the impacts of public sentiment on predictions. To address this limitation, we propose an interpretable keyword-guided network (IKNet), which is an explainable forecasting framework that models the semantic association between individual news keywords and stock price movements. The IKNet identifies salient keywords via FinBERTbased contextual analysis, processes each embedding through a separate nonlinear projection layer, and integrates their representations with the time-series data of technical indicators to forecast next-day closing prices. By applying Shapley Additive Explanations the model generates quantifiable and interpretable attributions for the contribution of each keyword to predictions. Empirical evaluations of S&P 500 data from 2015 to 2024 demonstrate that IKNet outperforms baselines, including recurrent neural networks and transformer models, reducing RMSE by up to 32.9% and improving cumulative returns by 18.5%. Moreover, IKNet enhances transparency by offering contextualized explanations of volatility events driven by public sentiment.

This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and quantitative data sources. In the first step, bubble periods in the S&P 500 index are identified using a right-tailed unit root test, a widely recognized real-time bubble detection method. The second step extracts sentiment features from large-scale financial news articles using natural language processing (NLP) techniques, which capture investor's expectations and behavioral patterns. In the final step, ensemble learning methods are applied to predict bubble occurrences based on both sentiment-based and macroeconomic predictors. Model performance is evaluated through k-fold cross-validation and compared against benchmark machine learning algorithms. Empirical results indicate that the proposed three-step ensemble approach significantly improves predictive accuracy and robustness, providing valuable early warning insights for investors, regulators, and policymakers in mitigating systemic financial risks.

Deep learning offers new tools for portfolio optimization. We present an end-to-end framework that directly learns portfolio weights by combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model temporal patterns, Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture evolving inter-stock relationships, and sentiment analysis of financial news to reflect market psychology. Unlike prior approaches, our model unifies these elements in a single pipeline that produces daily allocations. It avoids the traditional two-step process of forecasting asset returns and then applying mean--variance optimization (MVO), a sequence that can introduce instability. We evaluate the framework on nine U.S. stocks spanning six sectors, chosen to balance sector diversity and news coverage. In this setting, the model delivers higher cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios than equal-weighted and CAPM-based MVO benchmarks. Although the stock universe is limited, the results underscore the value of integrating price, relational, and sentiment signals for portfolio management and suggest promising directions for scaling the approach to larger, more diverse asset sets.

Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) models provide a unified framework for asset pricing and risk assessment, yet traditional formulations struggle to incorporate unstructured textual information. We introduce NewsNet-SDF, a novel deep learning framework that seamlessly integrates pretrained language model embeddings with financial time series through adversarial networks. Our multimodal architecture processes financial news using GTE-multilingual models, extracts temporal patterns from macroeconomic data via LSTM networks, and normalizes firm characteristics, fusing these heterogeneous information sources through an innovative adversarial training mechanism. Our dataset encompasses approximately 2.5 million news articles and 10,000 unique securities, addressing the computational challenges of processing and aligning text data with financial time series. Empirical evaluations on U.S. equity data (1980-2022) demonstrate NewsNet-SDF substantially outperforms alternatives with a Sharpe ratio of 2.80. The model shows a 471% improvement over CAPM, over 200% improvement versus traditional SDF implementations, and a 74% reduction in pricing errors compared to the Fama-French five-factor model. In comprehensive comparisons, our deep learning approach consistently outperforms traditional, modern, and other neural asset pricing models across all key metrics. Ablation studies confirm that text embeddings contribute significantly more to model performance than macroeconomic features, with news-derived principal components ranking among the most influential determinants of SDF dynamics. These results validate the effectiveness of our multimodal deep learning approach in integrating unstructured text with traditional financial data for more accurate asset pricing, providing new insights for digital intelligent decision-making in financial technology.

This study explores the comparative performance of cutting-edge AI models, i.e., Finaance Bidirectional Encoder representations from Transsformers (FinBERT), Generatice Pre-trained Transformer GPT-4, and Logistic Regression, for sentiment analysis and stock index prediction using financial news and the NGX All-Share Index data label. By leveraging advanced natural language processing models like GPT-4 and FinBERT, alongside a traditional machine learning model, Logistic Regression, we aim to classify market sentiment, generate sentiment scores, and predict market price movements. This research highlights global AI advancements in stock markets, showcasing how state-of-the-art language models can contribute to understanding complex financial data. The models were assessed using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC AUC. Results indicate that Logistic Regression outperformed the more computationally intensive FinBERT and predefined approach of versatile GPT-4, with an accuracy of 81.83% and a ROC AUC of 89.76%. The GPT-4 predefined approach exhibited a lower accuracy of 54.19% but demonstrated strong potential in handling complex data. FinBERT, while offering more sophisticated analysis, was resource-demanding and yielded a moderate performance. Hyperparameter optimization using Optuna and cross-validation techniques ensured the robustness of the models. This study highlights the strengths and limitations of the practical applications of AI approaches in stock market prediction and presents Logistic Regression as the most efficient model for this task, with FinBERT and GPT-4 representing emerging tools with potential for future exploration and innovation in AI-driven financial analytics

In the rapidly evolving financial sector, the accurate and timely interpretation of market news is essential for stakeholders needing to navigate unpredictable events. This paper introduces FANAL (Financial Activity News Alerting Language Modeling Framework), a specialized BERT-based framework engineered for real-time financial event detection and analysis, categorizing news into twelve distinct financial categories. FANAL leverages silver-labeled data processed through XGBoost and employs advanced fine-tuning techniques, alongside ORBERT (Odds Ratio BERT), a novel variant of BERT fine-tuned with ORPO (Odds Ratio Preference Optimization) for superior class-wise probability calibration and alignment with financial event relevance. We evaluate FANAL's performance against leading large language models, including GPT-4o, Llama-3.1 8B, and Phi-3, demonstrating its superior accuracy and cost efficiency. This framework sets a new standard for financial intelligence and responsiveness, significantly outstripping existing models in both performance and affordability.

Knowledge Graphs have emerged as a compelling abstraction for capturing key relationship among the entities of interest to enterprises and for integrating data from heterogeneous sources. JPMorgan Chase (JPMC) is leading this trend by leveraging knowledge graphs across the organization for multiple mission critical applications such as risk assessment, fraud detection, investment advice, etc. A core problem in leveraging a knowledge graph is to link mentions (e.g., company names) that are encountered in textual sources to entities in the knowledge graph. Although several techniques exist for entity linking, they are tuned for entities that exist in Wikipedia, and fail to generalize for the entities that are of interest to an enterprise. In this paper, we propose a novel end-to-end neural entity linking model (JEL) that uses minimal context information and a margin loss to generate entity embeddings, and a Wide & Deep Learning model to match character and semantic information respectively. We show that JEL achieves the state-of-the-art performance to link mentions of company names in financial news with entities in our knowledge graph. We report on our efforts to deploy this model in the company-wide system to generate alerts in response to financial news. The methodology used for JEL is directly applicable and usable by other enterprises who need entity linking solutions for data that are unique to their respective situations.

In the fast-paced and volatile financial markets, accurately predicting stock movements based on financial news is critical for investors and analysts. Traditional models often struggle to capture the intricate and dynamic relationships between news events and market reactions, limiting their ability to provide actionable insights. This paper introduces a novel approach leveraging Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through the development of a Geometric Hypergraph Attention Network (GHAN) to analyze the impact of financial news on market behaviours. Geometric hypergraphs extend traditional graph structures by allowing edges to connect multiple nodes, effectively modelling high-order relationships and interactions among financial entities and news events. This unique capability enables the capture of complex dependencies, such as the simultaneous impact of a single news event on multiple stocks or sectors, which traditional models frequently overlook. By incorporating attention mechanisms within hypergraphs, GHAN enhances the model's ability to focus on the most relevant information, ensuring more accurate predictions and better interpretability. Additionally, we employ BERT-based embeddings to capture the semantic richness of financial news texts, providing a nuanced understanding of the content. Using a comprehensive financial news dataset, our GHAN model addresses key challenges in financial news impact analysis, including the complexity of high-order interactions, the necessity for model interpretability, and the dynamic nature of financial markets. Integrating attention mechanisms and SHAP values within GHAN ensures transparency, highlighting the most influential factors driving market predictions. Empirical validation demonstrates the superior effectiveness of our approach over traditional sentiment analysis and time-series models.

In this paper, we demonstrate that non-generative, small-sized models such as FinBERT and FinDRoBERTa, when fine-tuned, can outperform GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models in zero-shot learning settings in sentiment analysis for financial news. These fine-tuned models show comparable results to GPT-3.5 when it is fine-tuned on the task of determining market sentiment from daily financial news summaries sourced from Bloomberg. To fine-tune and compare these models, we created a novel database, which assigns a market score to each piece of news without human interpretation bias, systematically identifying the mentioned companies and analyzing whether their stocks have gone up, down, or remained neutral. Furthermore, the paper shows that the assumptions of Condorcet's Jury Theorem do not hold suggesting that fine-tuned small models are not independent of the fine-tuned GPT models, indicating behavioural similarities. Lastly, the resulted fine-tuned models are made publicly available on HuggingFace, providing a resource for further research in financial sentiment analysis and text classification.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have stunningly advanced the field of machine translation, though their effectiveness within the financial domain remains largely underexplored. To probe this issue, we constructed a fine-grained Chinese-English parallel corpus of financial news called FFN. We acquired financial news articles spanning between January 1st, 2014, to December 31, 2023, from mainstream media websites such as CNN, FOX, and China Daily. The dataset consists of 1,013 main text and 809 titles, all of which have been manually corrected. We measured the translation quality of two LLMs -- ChatGPT and ERNIE-bot, utilizing BLEU, TER and chrF scores as the evaluation metrics. For comparison, we also trained an OpenNMT model based on our dataset. We detail problems of LLMs and provide in-depth analysis, intending to stimulate further research and solutions in this largely uncharted territory. Our research underlines the need to optimize LLMs within the specific field of financial translation to ensure accuracy and quality.